(July 10, 2026) Entering early July 2026, the domestic methyl silicone oil market has shown a differentiated pattern in which ordinary industrial-grade quotations are under pressure and high-end high-purity models have strong volume and price. Weak upstream raw materials and weak traditional downstream demand have dragged down conventional silicone oil transactions, while new energy, semiconductors, and medical tracks have driven continued growth in demand for electronic-grade, low-volatility specialty methyl silicone oil, highlighting the structural transformation characteristics of the industry.
1. Spot price: Conventional methyl silicone oil is sold at a discount, and the price difference between high and low ends continues to widen
According to the latest spot monitoring data on July 9, the mainstream acceptance quotation of industrial grade dimethyl silicone oil with general viscosity (350cs-1000cs) in China is 15,500-16,000 yuan/ton, and the spot transaction price has generally dropped to 14,200-15,000 yuan/ton; some large manufacturers in East China have lowered their quotations by nearly 1,000 yuan/ton this month. tons, downstream purchasers have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the market is mainly based on "use and purchase", and the willingness to prepare bulk goods is sluggish.
The quotation price of foreign brand general-purpose methyl silicone oil remains at 18,000-19,500 yuan/ton, and it occupies the high-end daily chemical and precision lubrication markets with its advantages of low ring body and low metal impurities; the transaction price of industrial bulk orders in Anhui and Shandong regions is as low as 14,200 yuan/ton, mainly supplying traditional fields such as textile defoaming and general demoulding.
Weak support from the cost side is the core reason for this round of price weakness: raw material prices of metallic silicon and methyl chloride have fallen slightly, and the market price of organic silicon monomer DMC has continued to decline. The industry has maintained a supply contraction strategy in July, and the operating rate of individual enterprises is only about 60%. The actions of reducing production and stabilizing prices have failed to reverse the deserted transaction situation caused by insufficient downstream demand, and an in-depth game between supply and demand has become the norm in the market.
2. Demand differentiation: insufficient growth in traditional fields, strong growth in emerging high-end tracks
From the perspective of downstream consumption structure, market demand is obviously polarized:
1.Traditional application market growth is sluggish
The demand for traditional terminals such as textile softeners, construction defoaming, and general rubber and plastic demoulding continues to shrink. The real estate, printing and dyeing industries have started to weaken, and the consumption of affordable industrial methyl silicone oil has slowed down, which has become the main factor dragging down the market of ordinary silicone oil.
2.Demand for high-end segmented tracks bucks the trend and rises
New energy, semiconductors, and medical equipment have become the core engines driving the growth of methyl silicone oil. In 2026, the demand for domestic electronic-grade high-purity methyl silicone oil is expected to increase by 22.4% year-on-year, and the procurement of raw materials for power battery thermal management, data center immersion cooling, and semiconductor thermal silicone grease continues to increase; these products require total metal ions ≤5ppm, moisture ≤10ppm, and extremely low low-molecular ring residues. Domestic leading companies have upgraded their continuous molecular distillation processes, and their product performance has gradually benchmarked against overseas Wacker and Shin-Etsu, and the self-sufficiency rate for high-end products has increased to 67.4%.
The fields of cosmetics and medical excipients are also steadily increasing. After the new version of the "GB/T38299-2025 Methyl Silicone Oil" national standard was implemented, the market penetration rate of hypoallergenic and low-volatility food/pharmaceutical grade methyl silicone oil continued to increase. Domestic skin care and washing care brands' purchase demand for compliant high-purity silicone oil increased by more than 18% year-on-year.
3. Industry trends: Leading companies are increasing their efforts in high-end refining production lines, and the implementation of green technologies is accelerating.
Industry research in early July showed that domestic leaders such as Xin'an Chemical, Dongyue Silicone, and Hesheng Silicone continued to optimize methyl silicone oil refining capacity, and multiple continuous molecular distillation production lines were put into stable operation, effectively narrowing the gap between domestic silicone oil and imported products in terms of batch stability and wide temperature range viscosity stability. For some models, the viscosity attenuation rate was controlled within 0.7%/thousand hours under the operating conditions of - 50℃~220℃, reaching international first-line standards.
At the same time, the green transformation of the industry is accelerating. Several research institutes have launched bio-based modified methyl silicone oil products, which account for more than 80% of natural raw materials. They have the advantages of easy biodegradation and low carbon footprint. They have passed the international beauty environmental protection certification and will be launched in batches in the overseas personal care market in the second half of the year, helping to increase the added value of domestic silicone oil exports. In 2025, the total domestic export volume of methyl silicone oil will be 32,800 tons, with an average price of 24,800 yuan/ton. The proportion of high-end special silicone oil exports will increase year by year to offset the weak pressure of the domestic traditional market.
4. Prediction of market outlook
In the short term (mid-to-late July), ordinary industrial-grade methyl silicone oil will still maintain a weak and stable quotation and light transaction pattern. Under the downward pressure of raw materials, it is not ruled out that some manufacturers will continue to offer profit-making shipments; in the medium and long term, the industry's growth logic will completely rely on high-end differentiated products. As the new energy vehicles, AI computing power liquid cooling, and high-end medical device industries continue to expand, high-purity electronic, medical, and thermal conductivity special methyl silicone oil will continue to contribute incrementally. The trend of industry production capacity elimination and concentration on high value-added tracks will be further strengthened, and the profit margins of ordinary homogeneous industrial silicone oil may continue to narrow.
