(July 06, 2026) In the first half of 2026, the domestic silica industry has shown a structural trend of clearing out low-end production capacity, increasing high-end production capacity, continuing high growth in exports, and an explosion in the new energy track. Superimposed on the implementation of EU green trade rules and domestic dual-carbon control policies, the industry has officially bid farewell to the extensive production expansion cycle and fully shifted to the high-quality development track of highly dispersed, biomass, and functional special silica.
1. Downstream demand is differentiated, and new energy vehicle tires have become the core growth engine.
According to the latest statistics from the China Rubber Association, the total annual domestic silica consumption is expected to exceed 1.8 million tons in 2026, with the market size reaching 28.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.
Traditional tires are still the largest application scenario, accounting for about 62% of total demand, but the demand structure has undergone fundamental changes: the demand for silica for fuel vehicles has only grown by 4.3%, while the demand for low rolling resistance green tires for new energy vehicles has increased by 23.8% year-on-year. The annual consumption of highly dispersible silica for supporting vehicles will reach 486,000 tons.
Industry estimates show that the amount of highly dispersed silica added to a single tire of new energy passenger car tires is 4.5-5.2 parts, which is much higher than the 2-2.8 parts of traditional fuel tires. In 2026, domestic new energy vehicle production is expected to exceed 12 million units, directly driving the increase in tire-specific silica to exceed 120,000 tons.
In addition to tires, demand for high value-added tracks such as photovoltaic sealants, power battery separators, electronic silicone rubber, and high-end coating matting agents has simultaneously exploded. Order schedules for vapor-phase hydrophobic silica and modified special silica are generally extended to 2-3 months. Special product revenue growth in the first half of the year for leading segment players such as Yuanxiang New Materials and Lingwei Technology exceeded 30%.
2. Import and export data are eye-catching, and domestic substitution continues to deepen
Data from the General Administration of Customs in the first quarter of 2026 show that the total domestic silica export volume was 402,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.57%, and the export value was US$211 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.55%; the import volume was only 19,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%, and the import dependence dropped from 28.6% in 2020 to the current 10.3%.
The export market structure has undergone significant changes. The United Arab Emirates surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the largest export destination. In the first quarter, it exported 130,900 tons, a year-on-year surge of 163.63%. It relied on free ports to transit the Middle East and European markets; the export growth rates of major Southeast Asian tire manufacturing countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and India all exceeded 16%, and overseas rigid demand continued to support the digestion of domestic production capacity.
The price level shows the characteristics of "parity for exports and high prices for imports": the average export price of domestic silica is US$524/ton, and the average price of imported high-end fumed silica is as high as US$3,090/ton, a price difference of nearly 6 times, highlighting that there is still room for domestic substitution of high-end modified products.
3. Policies increase green transformation and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity
In January 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Green and Low-Carbon Transformation of the Precipitation Silica Industry", which clarified that the carbon emission intensity of unit products in the entire industry this year needs to be reduced to less than 1.35 tons CO₂e / ton, and simultaneously launched a green grading certification system for silica. Class A low-carbon production capacity can enjoy income tax exemptions and green credit discounts.
In line with the energy efficiency control requirements of the "Special Action Plan for Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction in the Rubber Additive Industry", in the first half of the year, 27 small and medium-sized low-energy-efficiency silica production lines were shut down in major production areas such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, and 124,000 tons of backward production capacity were eliminated. The filing of new ordinary low-end precipitated silica projects was fully restricted, and highly dispersible and biomass recycling silica was included in the industrial encouragement catalog.
Biomass silica has become the core direction of industry transformation. The carbon footprint of low-carbon products prepared by relying on rice husk ash and agricultural straw by-products is 65% lower than that of traditional processes. The carbon emission per ton is only 0.85 tons of CO₂, which can meet the carbon certification requirements of the EU ESPR sustainable product regulations. Several leading companies have launched 50,000-ton biomass production lines within the year, and have significant export premium advantages.
4. Market structure: leaders expand production in high-end tracks, differentiated competition begins
In the second half of 2026, all industry expansion projects focus on high-end products, and there are no plans to add low-end general production capacity: Quecheng Co., Ltd. continues to expand the production of tire-grade high-dispersion silica, and deeply supports leading tire manufacturers such as Zhongce and Linglong; Yuanxiang New Materials specializes in hydrophobic silica for plus silicone rubber; many chemical companies have deployed modified silica production capacity for batteries and coatings.
The current total production capacity of the industry exceeds 3 million tons, with the overall situation of low-end surplus and high-end shortage. Ordinary precipitated silica companies continue to be under pressure, with gross profit margins of less than 7%; the gross profit margins of highly dispersible, gas phase, and biomass special silica products have remained stable at more than 20%, and industry profits continue to concentrate on technology leaders.
5. Market Outlook
Industry experts analyze that the silica industry will maintain a tight supply and demand pattern from July to December 2026: on the one hand, equipment in major domestic production areas is undergoing centralized maintenance, backward production capacity continues to be cleared, and the supply side is shrinking; on the other hand, the peak season for downstream orders for new energy vehicles, overseas tires, and photovoltaic rubber is coming, coupled with the lifting of EU anti-dumping barriers, export increments are expected to continue to be released, and there is room for mild upward growth in the market price of highly dispersible silica.
In the medium and long term, the dual-carbon policy, global green tire compulsory certification, and the expansion of the new energy industry chain will continue to drive the high-end, low-carbon, and functional upgrade of the silica industry. Domestic companies with recycling production and independent modification technology will further seize overseas high-end markets, and the domestic substitution process is expected to be basically completed in 2027.
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